Diggings

A blog by Toby Dayton

Archives

Archive for October, 2012

September Jobs Report Will Be Worse Than Anticipated; Expect Better News In October And Weak Jobs Numbers In November

As has been the case seemingly forever, trying to attain some visibility into the nation’s employment situation these days is like trying to take a picture with the new iPhone 5. While that exercise can be marred by a funny purple haze, the view of the labor market at the moment is marred by a thick [...]

Strong Job Posting Gains On LinkUp In August Point To Excellent Jobs Report In October; Weak Job Postings In June And July Indicate Sluggish Job Gains For August And September

On Friday, November 2nd, the Department of Labor will issue its jobs report for October, and It will be one of the strongest reports since the 1st quarter. Unfortunately, it just might be too late to do anything to help President Obama’s case that he has turned around the nation’s employment situation. Based on LinkUp’s [...]

LinkUp Expects Job Drought For Remainder Of Summer

Similar to the brutal and seemingly endless drought ravaging most of the country this Summer, particularly the central U.S., the bad news around the nation’s ability to generate any meaningful job growth will simply not let up. In Q1, the U.S. averaged monthly job gains of 225,000. In Q2, the average monthly job gain dropped [...]

June Jobs Report Will Be Slightly Better Than Anticipated; July Less So

With the nation’s singular focus on the economy as the November election rapidly approaches, all eyes will be on Friday’s jobs report for June. If the pundits on Slate’s Political Gabfest are correct (and at least John and Emily almost always are), most undecided and/or independent voters will be making up their minds in July [...]

May Jobs Report Will Be Worse Than Expected

I don’t expect to get any credit for issuing an accurate forecast after the fact, but we predict that today’s job report, issued roughly 9 hours ago at 8:30 EST this morning, was worse than expected. As is the case a few times each year, the BLS report came out the morning after the last [...]

Look For A Surprisingly Positive Jobs Report Tomorrow

Despite the scare that ADP gave everyone this week, tomorrow’s jobs report from the BLS will be far better than the anemic consensus estimates for job growth in April. Economists are predicting that only 165,000 jobs were created in April in the U.S., but based on LinkUp’s jobs numbers in March, we are forecasting that [...]

U.S. Jobs Picture Continues To Brighten; Look Beyond Headline Numbers For Improving Employment Situation; ‘Green Shoots’ This Year Look More Like Buckthorn

Tomorrow’s jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will come in very close to the consensus estimates of roughly 200,000 jobs created in March. Based on data from LinkUp’s job search engine in February, a month in which new and total job openings on company websites throughout the U.S. fell by 11.5% and [...]

Tomorrow’s Jobs Report Will Be Better Than Anticipated; Job Growth In March Will Falter

With a 57% jump in new job listings in January and a 23% jump in total job listings in LinkUp’s job search engine last month, we are forecasting that the U.S. economy added 260,000 jobs in February. While our forecast is above the consensus estimate of job growth of 210,000 in February, we remain confident [...]

Huge Job Listing Gains On LinkUp In January Point To Significant Job Growth In February

It’s hard to imagine that the muddled jobs picture could possibly get any murkier, but it is. Between ADP’s ‘Purge Effect,’ archaic seasonality adjustments (i.e., UPS and FedEx are still not fully accounted for in seasonal holiday hiring models), constant backwards revisions from the Department of Labor (a game ADP is now even playing), and [...]