Diggings

A blog by Toby Dayton
Job Gains Look Really Strong For Remainder Of 2012

Posted on Friday 2 November 2012 |

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While I would normally say it was unfortunate that I missed the self-imposed deadline for posting our 60-day jobs forecast yesterday, the delay turns out to have been quite fortuitous. The BLS released the October Employment Situation Report this morning which stated that the U.S. economy grew payrolls by 171,000 in October. On October 4th, I forecasted that October payrolls would grow by 175,000. I normally issue an updated forecast in the days just prior to the first Friday of the month that includes the most recent month’s LinkUp data factored into the analysis, but couldn’t get to that yesterday. Had I written that post yesterday and gone through the analysis that I finally got to today with October’s LinkUp data, I would have undoubtedly messed up the most accurate forecast we’ve ever made, and perhaps the most accurate forecast of any economist in the country for this morning’s report. (The consensus economic forecast was an increase of 125,000 jobs). In any event, in looking closely at last month’s data I still am going to make a prediction on how today’s October payroll report will be adjusted in the next 1 or 2 BLS updates. But first, October’s numbers.

New job openings on corporate websites around the country fell 1% in October, while total job openings on corporate websites remained flat from the prior month. In both cases, more states showed declines in new and total job openings than increases.

Completely unique to the industry, LinkUp’s job search engine indexes jobs that are only found on company websites throughout the U.S. LinkUp’s index currently lists over 1.2 million jobs indexed from over 22,000 companies. As a result of this unique approach to job listings, LinkUp’s search engine and the resulting data set are completely free of the pollution that plagues other sources such as old listings, duplicate listings, lead-gen bait, work-at-home-scams, fraudulent job posts, and jobs posted by 3rd-party intermediaries.

In terms of jobs by category, new job listings on corporate websites around the country rose 4% in October, while total job listings rose 2%. In both cases, far more categories showed increases new and total job openings than decreases.

Because there is currently a 60-day lag between a job opening being listed on a company’s corporate website and that posting resulting in a new job being created, October’s forecast is based on LinkUp’s jobs data in August. In August, new listings in LinkUp’s job search engine rose by 14.7% while total job listings in the index rose by 4%. As  result, we predicted nearly a month ago that payrolls would grow by 100,000 and end up coming in at 175,000 (click here to see that forecast). We were off by 2.2%. But since that forecast, the BLS has updated their numbers this morning for both August and September, and we have the latest LinkUp data for October. As a result of those new inputs, our model now shows that October’s job gain should be closer to 250,000 jobs, and  my guess is that October’s numbers will be revised up in either November’s Employment Situation Report or December’s (or both).

As well, the data indicates that job growth will increase for the next 2 months with 285,000 new jobs in November and 385,000 jobs in December. And if there is any justice in the world, it will be President Obama who can take credit in his 2nd term for the jobs recovery that has finally started to materialize in a significant way and looks like it is picking up steam.

 

 

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