I don’t expect to get any credit for issuing an accurate forecast after the fact, but we predict that today’s job report, issued roughly 9 hours ago at 8:30 EST this morning, was worse than expected. As is the case a few times each year, the BLS report came out the morning after the last day of the month, and we were unable to run our jobs reports and issue a forecast prior to the BLS report being issued. Too bad, too, as we would have gotten it pretty much right – unlike our spotty record of late. HAD we been able to conduct our analysis and issue our forecast prior to the BLS release, however, this is approximately what we would have said….
According to LinkUp’s jobs data for April and May, we are forecasting that only 15,000 jobs were created in May, down from the 115,000 jobs created in April. This is far worse than the consensus forecast of 150,000 jobs being created, and we anticipate that markets will react accordingly on the horrible jobs numbers.
Based on LinkUp’s jobs data from May, however, we expect that the government’s jobs report for June, issued on July 6th, will show some improvement. In May, new job listings on LinkUp rose 9% from April, climbing from roughly 350,000 to 380,000. Total job openings on company websites across the country rose 4% from 894,000 in April to 928,000 in May. Most encouragingly, 44 states showed increases in new and total job openings.
As background, LinkUp is the only job search engine on the web that indexes only jobs found on corporate websites throughout the U.S. Updated daily, LinkUp’s job search engine contains almost 1 million job openings indexed from 25,000 company websites. Because LinkUp does not include any jobs sourced from job boards and does not allow anyone to post jobs directly to the site, the search engine does not include any garbage listings such as job scams, phishing posts, work-at-home-scams, lead-gen bait, or old listings. And because LinkUp only indexes jobs from a single source (the employer’s corporate website itself), there are no duplicate listings that pollute aggregator sites such as Indeed and Simplyhired. As a result of these entirely unique attributes, not only is LinkUp the highest quality job site for job seekers (and it’s FREE!), but our jobs data is the ‘cleanest’ in the industry, entirely unencumbered by the noise that afflicts other jobs data sets.
In terms of jobs by category, the data was exactly the same. New jobs by category rose 9% and total jobs rose 4%.
Based on the jobs data from LinkUp’s job search engine in May, combined with this morning’s jobs report for May and the revisions that were made to prior months, I’ll take the liberty of revising our forecast for June’s jobs report to show that the U.S. economy will have added 150,000 jobs during the month. June’s numbers won’t be great and not nearly enough to make a meaningful dent in the unemployment rate, but they’ll certainly be far better than this morning’s poke in the eye.