The problem with this data is that since LinkUp wasn't around in December 2008, you don't know what the seasonal pattern is. Normally, recruitment slows down in December – people don't quit jobs as much, and employers wait till after the holidays to start the recruitment process. Lots of recruiters take vacations in December. So I doubt if this means anything. It's probably a normal dip.

The problem with this data is that since LinkUp wasn’t around in December 2008, you don’t know what the seasonal pattern is. Normally, recruitment slows down in December – people don’t quit jobs as much, and employers wait till after the holidays to start the recruitment process. Lots of recruiters take vacations in December. So I doubt if this means anything. It’s probably a normal dip.

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This post was mentioned on Twitter by tobydayton: LinkUp: December jobs report will be far worse than expected. New job listings from company sites dropped 24% – http://twurl.nl/g28625...

Martin,

Thanks for your comment. LinkUp has actually been around for years, and JobDig, which owns and operates LinkUp, was founded in 2000, so we are well aware of the seasonality to the job and recruitment advertising market.

Having said that, I would agree that some of the downturn could be the result of fewer companies hiring due to seasonality rather than continued weakness in the economy, but regardless of what is causing the downturn, the point is that companies are posting fewer job openings to their corporate websites. That makes it far less likely that the U.S. economy experienced a net increase in jobs created during the month as most economists expect. And that was the point of my post and what I read from the LinkUp data – that employers are not starting to hire again in the robust way that many economists seem to think they are.

Unemployment may actually go down again in December despite a monthly decline in jobs, but this would be due to the flawed way in which our nation's unemployment rate is calculated. If people stop looking for work because of the holidays or general discouragement, they are not counted as unemployed.

We'll see what comes out tomorrow, but my guess is that the U.S. lost more jobs in December.

Toby

Did LinkUp publish comparable information for December 2008? Is there a multi-year trend line for this data? I could not find it on the site.

Martin,

Thanks for your comment. LinkUp has actually been around for years, and JobDig, which owns and operates LinkUp, was founded in 2000, so we are well aware of the seasonality to the job and recruitment advertising market.

Having said that, I would agree that some of the downturn could be the result of fewer companies hiring due to seasonality rather than continued weakness in the economy, but regardless of what is causing the downturn, the point is that companies are posting fewer job openings to their corporate websites. That makes it far less likely that the U.S. economy experienced a net increase in jobs created during the month as most economists expect. And that was the point of my post and what I read from the LinkUp data – that employers are not starting to hire again in the robust way that many economists seem to think they are.

Unemployment may actually go down again in December despite a monthly decline in jobs, but this would be due to the flawed way in which our nation’s unemployment rate is calculated. If people stop looking for work because of the holidays or general discouragement, they are not counted as unemployed.

We’ll see what comes out tomorrow, but my guess is that the U.S. lost more jobs in December.

Toby

Martin,

We did publish information last year, but year-over-year comparisons are challenging because we are indexing so many more companies than we did a year ago. The information from last December can be found at

http://blogs.jobdig.com/diggings/2009/01/05/dec…

But you'll notice that we were indexing approximately 4,000 fewer companies then than we are today.

Toby

Did LinkUp publish comparable information for December 2008? Is there a multi-year trend line for this data? I could not find it on the site.

Martin,

We did publish information last year, but year-over-year comparisons are challenging because we are indexing so many more companies than we did a year ago. The information from last December can be found at

http://blogs.jobdig.com/diggings/2009/01/05/december-jobs-report-is-grim-delaware-and-maryland-show-strength/

But you’ll notice that we were indexing approximately 4,000 fewer companies then than we are today.

Toby

[...] Diggings A blog by Toby Dayton « December Jobs Report Will Be Far Worse Than Expected 29 of 36 Industries Saw Declines in Corporate Job Listings In [...]

Well, you were correct on this, congrats.
Maybe my optimism stems from living in Vermont, which should be booming, judging by the growth you show (but I realize the sample size in Vermont is too small to be meaningful),.

Well, you were correct on this, congrats.
Maybe my optimism stems from living in Vermont, which should be booming, judging by the growth you show (but I realize the sample size in Vermont is too small to be meaningful),.

Well, you were correct on this, congrats.
Maybe my optimism stems from living in Vermont, which should be booming, judging by the growth you show (but I realize the sample size in Vermont is too small to be meaningful),.

[...] websites in LinkUp’s search engine increased by 34,525 (4%). This is in sharp contrast to LinkUp’s dismal December report in which new and total job listings plummeted by 24% and 17% [...]

[...] to 150,000. The only solace I can take in the even grimmer December report is that it makes our pessimistic call for the December jobs report even more accurate than it already was (and makes others’ [...]