Diggings

A blog by Toby Dayton
I Moved Diggings to LinkUp.com

Posted on Wednesday 3 April 2013

The Diggings blog will now be located on LinkUp’s blog – HERE. Once you’re there, you’ll find our jobs forecast for March entitled – “LinkUp Remains Cautiously Optimistic About Friday’s Jobs Report; New Job Listings In Construction Rose 187% In March.”

In addition to our monthly jobs forecasts, labor market data, and incredibly insightful analysis, the LinkUp blog will also include a bunch of other content and feature a bunch of new contributors. We’ll keep Diggings up for a while, but if you want to make sure you don’t miss anything, head over to LinkUp and resubscribe to that RSS feed and/or the email notification.

Thanks.

Toby

 

 

 

Filed under: Uncategorized
Job Openings By City For Top 50 Largest Cities In The U.S.

Posted on Wednesday 27 March 2013

One of the new reports we will start publishing each month is the number of job openings in the 50 largest cities in the U.S. The report below includes the number of job openings on LinkUp’s job search engine on March 13, 2013 within a 25 mile radius around the 50 largest cities in the country. We will run the report again at the end of each month and compare the data to prior months. As a side note, the data from LinkUp is highly unique because we only index job openings from corporate websites (the index currently includes 1.4 million jobs from 25,000 company websites). As a result of this unique approach to jobs, our search engine and the related data sets do not include duplicate listings, expired jobs, or job board ‘pollution’ (scams, fraud, work-at-home garbage, etc.). The 458,467 jobs in the 50 largest cities represent 33% of the total number of job openings in LinkUp’s job search engine.

Job Openings in Top 50 US Cities 3_13_13

 

If you have particular reports you would be interested in seeing or have questions about our search engine or how we leverage our data to predict future job growth (see previous post as evidence of our model’s accuracy in forecasting job growth in the U.S.), please send an email to toby at LinkUp dot com.

Winter Is Coming, But LinkUp Predicts Strong Job Growth This Spring

Posted on Wednesday 6 March 2013

Scene: Somewhere in the Riverlands, south of The Twins.

Tywin Lannister: “When the battle commences, you and your wildlings will be in the vanguard.”

Tyrion Lannister: “The vanguard? Me and the tribesman, on the front lines?”

After a brief recounting of the savagery of the Stone Crows and the Moon Brothers the night prior, Tyrion exclaims, “Surely there are ways to have me killed that are less detrimental to the war effort.”

Tywin: “There will be no more discussion on the matter.”

Tyrion, leaving the table: “It appears I’m not hungry after all. Excuse me my Lords.”

__________________________________________________________________

For certain, the vanguard is no place for the weak or the cowardly given that it’s where the most intense action takes place. In today’s global capital markets, the vanguard is arguably the U.S. unemployment rate. While the nation’s labor market has served as a critical marker for the country’s anemic recovery from the Great Recession, Bernanke’s decision to peg the duration of QE III to the unemployment rate adds even more weight to the figure. Leaving aside for a minute the soundness of the Fed Chairman’s decision (it’s entirely appropriate and congress should be adding stimulus), an already critical data point has become a colossus. The largest economy in the world ($15.7 trillion v. China’s $8.3 trillion) is receiving an IV drip of pure adrenaline until such time as the patient is sufficiently healthy to rise from his deathbed. And the only reading on the EKG is whether or not U.S. unemployment has dropped below 6.5%. Needless to say, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has never had such a massive global audience.

And what of Bernanke’s decision to peg QE III to the unemployment rate? The answer has 3 parts that can be summarized as follows:

1) It is, absolutely without question, the right prescription for the deathly ill U.S. economy (see Krugman)

2) The only drawback is that unemployment is notoriously difficult to measure and BLS data is not completely reliable.

3) QE III is working (despite what Jim Grant might argue to the contrary)

Krugman’s columns and his outstanding book (End This Depression Now) are more than ample evidence to support Bernanke’s case on the need for stimulus. In fact, the doctor should be administering even more aggressive stimulus, and were it not for the Kevorkian Congress, we’d be in even better shape today.

In regard to point 2, measuring true unemployment remains as elusive as finding grumkins and snarks. The unemployment rate released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a horribly bastardized figure (see blog post here), and the job growth figures are equally as unreliable. And while I completely disagree with Jim Grant’s abhorrence of Bernanke’s easing regimen, I do agree with his skepticism in pegging central bank programs to suspect economic figures.

In the February 8th Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, Grant writes, in criticizing the decision of the Bank of England’s Mark Carney to shift his focus to GDP instead of inflation,

“If Britain’s macroeconomic data are inferior even to America’s, you wonder how Carney can make good on the policy change he is supposed to have under his hat. The move at which he’s hinted is a shift to targeting nominal GDP instead of the rate of inflation, at which the bank has been shooting since 1992. But if GDP is a lagging indicator, and if it is hard to measure, and if those measurements are prone to revision – certainly, all this is true in the United States – how on Earth could a GDP-targeting central bank expect to hit what it is aiming at?”

Indeed, what is true of Carney’s challenge in targeting Britain’s GDP is true of Bernanke’s challenge in targeting U.S. unemployment and U.S. job growth.

As evidence of Bernanke’s dilemma, and because our current LinkUp 30-day forecast includes not only estimates for job growth in February and March, but also revisions to job growth figures for December and January, I’ll highlight the frequency and magnitude of the revisions that the BLS makes to its own data. The 2 charts below highlight in both gross numbers and percentages the 30-day and 60-day revisions made by the Department of Labor since January of 2011.

BLS Revisions Bar Chart

 

BLS Percentage Revisions

The average 30-day revision is 13%, with 13 upward revisions and 8 downward. The average 60-day revision, in relation to the initial data release, is 25%, with 18 upward revisions and 5 downward. The average change for the 60-day revision, in relation to the 30-day data point, is 17%, with 15 upward revisions and 7 downward. And lastly, there were 9 instances in which both the 30-day and the 60-day figures were revised upwards, 4 went up/down, 3 went down/down, and 4 went down/up. Needless to say, the BLS job growth numbers are quite the moving target. No doubt Bernanke’s a good shot, but the BLS data would test even the finest marksman.

So in any event, is the stimulus working? It is impossible to prove where we’d be without it (and I shudder to even think about it), so all we can do is look at where we are with it – and that’s not a horrible place. To be sure, the recovery has been miserably slow and incredibly painful, and things could and should be a whole lot better. I also have no doubt that they would be without the criminal dysfunction in Washington, particularly on the part of the House Republicans who would euthanize the economy rather than see any improvements and related credit accrue to Obama. But job growth is slowly creeping up, and the February numbers from LinkUp provide some optimism that job growth will accelerate in the months ahead. Which brings me back to the Vanguard.

Rather than looking backwards at historical data, particularly when it’s flawed or unreliable, I would suggest that the vanguard in assessing the strength of future job growth in the U.S. lies in obtaining insights from the job listings that employers use to fill job openings. The best available indicator of a future hire is a job listing that a company posts to attract job applicants to fill that opening. And the best source of those job listings is the company’s own corporate website itself because it’s free for the company to post jobs on its own site, there are no old, outdated, or already-filled listings, there are no duplicate job listings, and there is no garbage such as fraudulent listings from lead-gen marketing companies, work-at-home scams, or identity theft posts. Nearly as important, there are no listings from 3rd party intermediaries such as recruiters, staffing companies, temp firms, headhunters, or search firms.

The challenge in all this is that there are tens of thousands of corporate websites and indexing all of the job openings on all of them every day is unimaginably difficult. Fortunately, LinkUp does exactly that, and the 1.4 million jobs that we index from 25,000 corporate websites throughout the U.S. every day give us unrivaled ability to predict future job growth in the country. And what we see ahead of us looks quite good.

In February, new job listings in LinkUp’s job search engine rose 14% to 566,386, and total job listings rose 9% to 1,297,959. 46 states showed gains in new job listings while 48 states showed gains in total job openings.

Jobs By State Feb 2013

In terms of job openings by category, new and total job listings both rose by 5%, with 17 of 31 categories showing gains in new job openings and 21 of 31 categories reporting increases in total job listings.

Jobs By Category Feb 2013

Based on LinkUp’s job listings data from November and December, we are forecasting that the BLS will, in Friday’s Employment Situation Report, revise December’s jobs numbers up to a positive 260,000 and January’s numbers up to a positive 275,000. January’s slight downtick in new and total job listings on LinkUp leads to a forecast of only 260,000 jobs being added to the U.S. economy in February.

BLS Revisions

But most encouragingly, strong data from LinkUp’s job search engine in February points to a net gain of 410,000 jobs in March.

LinkUp Forecast February 2013

 

It’s an ambitious forecast, to be sure, but then again, the vanguard is no place for the faint of heart.

Oh, and by the way……Winter is coming.

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Google ChromeScreenSnapz001

 

December Jobs Report Will Be Far Better Than Expected; Strong Employment Gains Should Continue Through Q1 2013

Posted on Wednesday 2 January 2013

Despite mixed to horrible marks for the quality of the bill as a solid solution to the nation’s long-term revenue and expense woes (one former budget official from the Clinton administration speaking earlier today on Bloomberg Radio gave it a D-), last night’s passage of HR 8 – The Tax Relief Extension Act – has spurred significant gains across global markets. U.S. markets closed up roughly 2-3% for the day, and markets in Europe rose about the same. If such a widely panned piece of legislation that does little more than defer ever-growing battles for just 60 days can generate such a positive reaction in the markets, imagine what Friday’s jobs report will do.

According to LinkUp, job gains in the U.S. in December will be far higher than the 150,000 predicted by most economists. In fact, based on its job search engine data from earlier in Q4, LinkUp is forecasting that the U.S. added more than 300,000 jobs last month. Equally as significant, based on LinkUp data from November and December, job growth will remain similarly strong throughout the first quarter.

Last October, new job openings listed on company websites throughout the U.S. rose by 15.9%, while total job listings on corporate websites rose 12.2%. Given that a job opening posted on an employer’s corporate website is the strongest indicator of a future hire (typically about 60 days down the road in the current hiring environment), LinkUp’s data points to a very strong Employment Situation Report this Friday from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. While consensus forecasts predict that only 150,000 jobs were created, roughly equal to the gains seen in November, LinkUp’s forecasting model points to job gains of 305,000. With an average increase of 0.8% in new and total total job listings in November, job gains will increase slightly in January to 310,000. Stronger gains in both new and total job listings indexed by LinkUp indicate that job growth in February will rise sharply to over 400,000 jobs created. Of course, LinkUp’s February’s forecast is subject to revisions based on what we see in the index in January.

LinkUp’s job search engine currently indexes over 1.2 million jobs from nearly 25,000 corporate websites throughout the country. Highly unique to the industry, LinkUp’s search engine does not include any listings from job boards. As a result, our search engine and the resulting data set contain none of the job board pollution that plagues sites like Indeed and Simplyhired and muddies other employment data sources such as the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Index. Job board pollution includes such things as job scams, identity theft posts, work-at-home garbage, lead-gen bait, money-mule fraud, and duplicate listings from recruiters, search firms, headhunters, and other 3rd party intermediaries. And because LinkUp updates its search results daily, there are no old or outdated job listings.

In terms of the state by state jobs data for December, new job listings on company websites fell 4% during the month to 544,759. Total job listings on corporate websites stayed relatively flat from the prior month at 1,283,835 job openings. (These numbers are slightly different that the numbers in the forecast above because they are based on a single paired-month data point, while the forecast above relies on 4 separate data points for each month’s forecasted job growth). In December, 34 states saw declines in new job openings while 23 states saw increases in total job openings posted to corporate websites.

In terms of jobs by category, new job listings fell by 7% and total job listings by category fell by 2%.

Within both new and total job listings by category, roughly 20 of the 31 categories tracked by LinkUp reported declines. Supply Chain & Logistics, Sales, and Manufacturing were the 3 categories hit the hardest, with declines of over 5,000 new job listings in each. That certainly should raise at least slight concern about what we might see in the economy later this year, but given the turmoil and dysfunction in Washington these days, it’s tough to get any sense of what things might look like 2 months from now. Who would have guessed in October that the House of Representatives would leave unattended its handling of storm relief legislation following hurricane Sandy?

So for now, all we can do is be happy about today’s market gains and even more delighted about what we should see in Friday morning’s jobs report.

Happy New Year.

Look For Strong Jobs Reports in November & December; Let’s Hope The Grinch Doesn’t Ruin The Start Of The New Year

Posted on Thursday 6 December 2012

Despite pretty bleak jobs data from LinkUp’s job search engine in November, we’re forecasting that tomorrow’s jobs report will be better than anticipated. We’re also predicting that December’s jobs report will be quite strong. Unfortunately, our jobs data from November points to a weak start to 2013, but we’ll see what happens as we get closer to the new year. Maybe Santa will bring some better data for December, because at the moment, the data we have from November is just as awful as a giant lump of coal.

In November, new jobs on corporate websites throughout the U.S. fell 17% from October, and total job listings dropped 6%. Even more dismal than the raw numbers, only 4 states (ID, MT, ND, MN) showed an increase in new or total jobs. That lone bright spot in the Northern Plains surely reflects the booming economic activity from growing oil and gas production that has increased demand for workers. Other than that single region of the country, however, the rest of the U.S. reported pretty horrific numbers.

LinkUp is the largest and fastest growing job search engine that only indexes jobs that are only found on company websites throughout the U.S. LinkUp’s index currently lists over 1.1 million jobs indexed from over 22,000 companies. As a result of this unique approach to job listings, LinkUp’s search engine and the resulting data set are completely free of the pollution that plagues other sources such as old listings, duplicate listings, lead-gen bait, work-at-home-scams, fraudulent job posts, and jobs posted by 3rd-party intermediaries. As a result of this approach, our jobs data is free of any noise and provides a very accurate picture of labor demand in the U.S. economy.

Jobs by category in November were just as horrible as state by state data, with new job listings by category falling by 15% in November and total job listings dropping 4%. Of the 31 categories tracked by LinkUp, only 2 (Manufacturing & Operations and Supply Chain & Logistics) reported increases in new and total job openings. While that might provide a faint glimmer of hope for the nation’s manufacturing, the numbers as a whole indicate that job growth in the beginning of next year will be anemic at best.

Based on our data from September and October, we are anticipating that 225,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in November, and forecasting that 375,000 will be added in December.

Because a job listing is the strongest signal of demand for a future hire, typically about 60 days down the road, our 60-day forecast reflects the 4.2% increase in new and total job listings in LinkUp’s search engine in September and the 14% gains seen in October. As we mentioned previously, however, the numbers in November point to a tougher month in January. Let’s hope things change before the Grinch shows up.

 

 

 

 

Job Gains Look Really Strong For Remainder Of 2012

Posted on Friday 2 November 2012

While I would normally say it was unfortunate that I missed the self-imposed deadline for posting our 60-day jobs forecast yesterday, the delay turns out to have been quite fortuitous. The BLS released the October Employment Situation Report this morning which stated that the U.S. economy grew payrolls by 171,000 in October. On October 4th, I forecasted that October payrolls would grow by 175,000. I normally issue an updated forecast in the days just prior to the first Friday of the month that includes the most recent month’s LinkUp data factored into the analysis, but couldn’t get to that yesterday. Had I written that post yesterday and gone through the analysis that I finally got to today with October’s LinkUp data, I would have undoubtedly messed up the most accurate forecast we’ve ever made, and perhaps the most accurate forecast of any economist in the country for this morning’s report. (The consensus economic forecast was an increase of 125,000 jobs). In any event, in looking closely at last month’s data I still am going to make a prediction on how today’s October payroll report will be adjusted in the next 1 or 2 BLS updates. But first, October’s numbers.

New job openings on corporate websites around the country fell 1% in October, while total job openings on corporate websites remained flat from the prior month. In both cases, more states showed declines in new and total job openings than increases.

Completely unique to the industry, LinkUp’s job search engine indexes jobs that are only found on company websites throughout the U.S. LinkUp’s index currently lists over 1.2 million jobs indexed from over 22,000 companies. As a result of this unique approach to job listings, LinkUp’s search engine and the resulting data set are completely free of the pollution that plagues other sources such as old listings, duplicate listings, lead-gen bait, work-at-home-scams, fraudulent job posts, and jobs posted by 3rd-party intermediaries.

In terms of jobs by category, new job listings on corporate websites around the country rose 4% in October, while total job listings rose 2%. In both cases, far more categories showed increases new and total job openings than decreases.

Because there is currently a 60-day lag between a job opening being listed on a company’s corporate website and that posting resulting in a new job being created, October’s forecast is based on LinkUp’s jobs data in August. In August, new listings in LinkUp’s job search engine rose by 14.7% while total job listings in the index rose by 4%. As  result, we predicted nearly a month ago that payrolls would grow by 100,000 and end up coming in at 175,000 (click here to see that forecast). We were off by 2.2%. But since that forecast, the BLS has updated their numbers this morning for both August and September, and we have the latest LinkUp data for October. As a result of those new inputs, our model now shows that October’s job gain should be closer to 250,000 jobs, and  my guess is that October’s numbers will be revised up in either November’s Employment Situation Report or December’s (or both).

As well, the data indicates that job growth will increase for the next 2 months with 285,000 new jobs in November and 385,000 jobs in December. And if there is any justice in the world, it will be President Obama who can take credit in his 2nd term for the jobs recovery that has finally started to materialize in a significant way and looks like it is picking up steam.

 

 

September Jobs Report Will Be Worse Than Anticipated; Expect Better News In October And Weak Jobs Numbers In November

Posted on Thursday 4 October 2012

As has been the case seemingly forever, trying to attain some visibility into the nation’s employment situation these days is like trying to take a picture with the new iPhone 5. While that exercise can be marred by a funny purple haze, the view of the labor market at the moment is marred by a thick film of mud. Conflicting data points abound, with gloomy economists predicting growth of about only 120,000 jobs in September and optimistic TrimTabs predicting job growth of 210,000 jobs. ADP reported this week that 162,000 private-sector jobs were added last month, while the Conference Board reported that online labor demand rose 128,600. Consumer confidence is rising, at least according to the Consumer Confidence Index, and the Institute for Supply management reports that the manufacturing index is climbing. And yet, just this morning, the Department of labor reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose last week.

And like a horrible NFL replacement ref, even the referee in this matter (the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the BLS) can’t seem to get the calls right. The BLS has revised every monthly data point twice this year and just recently made a not-insignificant upward revision of an additional gain of 386,000 jobs to its data through Q1 of this year. To say the least, no one can be perfectly certain where the labor market is right now or where it’s headed. And with the continued weakness in the economy and the election fast approaching, there has never been more attention paid to the jobs picture.

Unfortunately, LinkUp’s jobs data for the September and the prior few months not only throws more mud onto the lens, the data also points to a significantly gloomier jobs forecast in the months ahead. In September, new job postings on corporate websites throughout the country fell 13% to 379,328, while total job listings fell 3% to 986,448.

Completely unique to the industry, LinkUp’s job search engine indexes jobs that are only found on company websites throughout the U.S. LinkUp’s index currently lists over 1.2 million jobs indexed from over 22,000 companies. As a result of this unique approach to job listings, LinkUp’s search engine and the resulting data set are completely free of the pollution that plagues other sources such as old listings, duplicate listings, lead-gen bait, work-at-home-scams, fraudulent job posts, and jobs posted by 3rd-party intermediaries.

Equally as disturbing as the aggregate numbers in September, every state except Wisconsin reported a decline in new job listings on company websites, and 44 states reported a decline in total job listings on  company websites.

The data is even more grim looking at jobs by category. New job listings by category declined 32%, with all 31 categories tracked by LinkUp showing declines. Total jobs by category fell 11%, with 27 of 31 categories showing declines.

Based on September’s jobs data, combined with our data since July, we are issuing our 60-day job forecast showing job growth of only 75,000 jobs in September, 175,000 jobs gained in October, and back down to only 75,000 jobs in November.

 

Tomorrow’s horrible jobs numbers are the result of what we saw in July on LinkUp’s job search engine – a blended 1.8% decline in new and total job openings on corporate websites. Assuming a 60-day lag between a job opening appearing on LinkUp and that opening translating into an actual hire, July’s activity doesn’t bode well for tomorrow’s BLS report. (In February, the lag between job postings and actual hires jumped from 30 days to 60 days as more and more companies lengthened their hiring process). Likewise, we saw a 9.4% increase in a 50/50 blend of new and total job openings on LinkUp in August which points to better job growth in October. And finally, September’s horrific numbers would indicate an extremely weak jobs report for November.

So while my crystal ball may not be any better than anyone else’s at the moment, I’d take the under on almost any wager these days about upcoming jobs numbers. Of course, if there are replacement refs on the field, all bets are off.

 

 

Strong Job Posting Gains On LinkUp In August Point To Excellent Jobs Report In October; Weak Job Postings In June And July Indicate Sluggish Job Gains For August And September

Posted on Tuesday 4 September 2012

On Friday, November 2nd, the Department of Labor will issue its jobs report for October, and It will be one of the strongest reports since the 1st quarter. Unfortunately, it just might be too late to do anything to help President Obama’s case that he has turned around the nation’s employment situation. Based on LinkUp’s jobs data for June, July, and August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs reports for August and September will be pretty horrible, but October’s report will be the strongest since February.

LinkUp stands as the nation’s largest and fastest growing job search engine that exclusively indexes only jobs from company websites. As of the end of August, LinkUp’s job search engine included nearly 1.2 million jobs openings from approximately 25,000 company websites throughout the U.S. Because LinkUp does not include any jobs sourced from job boards and does not allow anyone to post jobs directly to the site, the search engine does not include any garbage listings such as job scams, phishing posts, work-at-home-scams, lead-gen bait, or old listings. And because LinkUp only indexes jobs from a single source (the employer’s corporate website itself), there are no duplicate listings that pollute aggregator sites such as Indeed and Simplyhired. As a result of these entirely unique attributes, combined with the fact that our index is updated daily, LinkUp stands as the highest quality job site for job seekers and our jobs data is the ‘cleanest’ in the industry, entirely unencumbered by the noise that afflicts other jobs data sets.

In August, new job listings on company websites rose 14%, with gains in all 50 states. Total job openings on company websites throughout the country rose 4% with gains in 44 states.

Jobs by category showed identical gains, with new and total jobs rising 14% and 4% respectively.

Typically, there is a 30-day lag between our jobs report and the BLS report for a given month (since it takes an average of approximately 30 days or so for a job posting to be filled with an actual hire). But since March of this year, that 30-day lag has extended to roughly a 60-day lag. As a result, June’s slight decline in job openings will lead to a weak job report for August. We expect that only 110,000 jobs were created in August. LinkUp’s July numbers were also weak, so we expect that only 60,000 jobs will be created in September. And finally, the strong LinkUp numbers in August will lead to the creation of 210,000 jobs in October.

Most Popular Job Titles On LinkUp In July

Posted on Tuesday 7 August 2012

LinkUp Expects Job Drought For Remainder Of Summer

Posted on Thursday 2 August 2012

Similar to the brutal and seemingly endless drought ravaging most of the country this Summer, particularly the central U.S., the bad news around the nation’s ability to generate any meaningful job growth will simply not let up. In Q1, the U.S. averaged monthly job gains of 225,000. In Q2, the average monthly job gain dropped to 75,000 jobs per month. While still positive, the monthly net job gain has, of late, not even been sufficient to keep up with population growth and remains well below the number needed to start moving the nation’s unemployment rate down. And like a weatherman in Topeka, we see little on the horizon that gives us any hope that the situation is going to change anytime soon.

In July, new job openings on corporate websites throughout the U.S. fell 2% from June, and total job job openings on corporate websites rose by a scant 1% from the prior month. The job listings data is generated from LinkUp, the nation’s largest and fastest growing job search engine that exclusively indexes only jobs from company websites. As of the end of July, LinkUp’s job search engine included over 1 million jobs openings from approximately 25,000 company websites throughout the U.S. Because LinkUp does not include any jobs sourced from job boards and does not allow anyone to post jobs directly to the site, the search engine does not include any garbage listings such as job scams, phishing posts, work-at-home-scams, lead-gen bait, or old listings. And because LinkUp only indexes jobs from a single source (the employer’s corporate website itself), there are no duplicate listings that pollute aggregator sites such as Indeed and Simplyhired. As a result of these entirely unique attributes, combined with the fact that our index is updated daily, LinkUp stands as the highest quality job site for job seekers and our jobs data is the ‘cleanest’ in the industry, entirely unencumbered by the noise that afflicts other jobs data sets.

In terms of jobs by category, the LinkUp data is exactly the same as jobs by state, with new job listings by job category falling 2% and total jobs by category rising 1%.

Because there is typically a 30-day lag between the time a company posts a job opening and when that job is filled with a new hire, we are basing our July jobs report on LinkUp’s June job openings data. In June, new job openings on LinkUp declined 4.3% and total job openings on company websites rose by a miniscule .5%. Using a blended 50/50 ratio of those two inputs (which equates to -1.9%), we expect that job growth will decline by 20,000 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payroll number for June, which was 80,000. So despite the consensus economic forecast of net job growth of 100,000 tomorrow, we believe that the number will be slightly worse, with only 60,000 jobs gained in July. And with the lackluster numbers from LinkUp’s job search engine in the past 30 days, we expect that the BLS numbers will decline again in August, with only 50,000 jobs gained in the U.S. economy next month.

Maybe if we all start listening to the Rain Song, we can turn this thing around.